Monday, 6 October 2014

Lee Metal or BRC my thoughts

Someone asked my this question:

Hi Paul, thanks for sharing. What do you think about BRC as a comparison to Lee Metal? It seems to me that BRC is still better with lower gearing and higher margin.



Being a long term investor, I shall attempt to compare both over a decade frame when I stay vested. This will encompass 2 crises, sars and gfc.
I look at dividends over a decade or even two, as the direct translation of company assets, business and structure to small shareholder benefits. This way, I will be able to predict the likelihood of a company repeating its performance into the next and allows me also to compare two companies.

Lower gearing and margin can fluctuate. I tend to look at past decade of dividends.

Here's my take:

BRC:

1) skipped dividends in 2004 and 2009 (GFC)
2) no clear pattern of dividend raise. Is business revenue any clear trend? I cannot see it, at least from the translational point of view.
3) not sure about nav rise, since when the above 2 criteria absent, I tend not to look further.

LeeMetal

1) no skipped dividend. Clear signal of large shareholder taking care of small.
2) Dividends increased from 0.5c 10 years ago to around 3c now.
3) Dividends frequency increased to 4 x a year
4) in 2009 ie crisis when BRC skipped dividend, Leemetal had a bumper year.
5) nav rise


IMO, I see much stronger likelihood of leemetal repeating its past decade performance into the next, compared to BRC. Crisis period are the best times actually to assess the company's financial strength.

In my case, I use one tan chong payout to exchange for 4 payouts next year, while keeping my tan chong shares still. Not a bad deal to me.


Thanks once again for reading.

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