Monday, 1 May 2017

portfolio update - april 2017

Dividend by month

1) singtel
2) fcot sgx capitacom lian beng starhillg fct sphreit cmt
3) spost  taisin
4) roxy
5) fcot steng sgx  uob sph starhillg fct sphreit cmt cdg hcg
6) tcil ocbc lkh
7) singpost
8) fcot singtel  plife  ocbc  capitacom starhillg sci steng fct singpost sphreit cmt
9)  uob tcil cdg
10) sgx lian beng
11) fcot taisin sgx spost  starhillg fct cmt
12) sph sats ksh


Remarks:


my comments:

counters which appear this month and say, 2 months ago are still the same counters. however, they might not be the same quantity.

Singtel. more added during the recent sell off, from profit taking in taisin and ksh.

Comfortdelgro. a transport giant. distinct pattern of raising dividend. like singtel, cdg has also gone global. vesting in this would mean having interest in its transport business in different parts of the world. investing in this means indirectly investing in vicom and sbs.

Singpost. in process of ecommerce/elogistic transformation. traditional mail expected to see gradual decline. contribution by singpost centre would come soon. give the counter some time. give the new ceo come time to transform this mail giant. needs to be patient with this counter. anyway, getting paid 4x a year while waiting is not a bad deal.

Taisin. profit taken. ard 45c. to me, this represents overvalue, from the yield and nav point of view.

Roxy. will go xd in april. slow and steady counter. deeply undervalued imo. barring unforeseen circumstances, it should be a winner in excess of 5 years. take a walk around marine parade area and one can see that the upcoming mrt is just literally in front of its hotel and roxy square assets. impressive 60m gain in 3 years from selling its australian asset. management appears very shrewd.


lian beng. deeply undervalued. of course we wont expect it to trade at nav, but its discount to its nav and its low pe appears attractive. lots of hard asset backing and recurring income. its contract works will keep it busy and provide income till 2021.


low keng huat, another deeply undervalued counters. revamp of paya lebar area will give it a boost. slow and steady counter. won perumal site bid, this is in close proximity of farrer park mrt. it probably will hold the ground floor units for recurring income, as in the case of plsq.
Another steady ship. 4c dividend declared. nav up to 90c, cash plus deposits equals 1/4bil, so much of the company is actually cash.


tcil, each passing year represents an increasingly wide pb gap. lots of hard asset backing but no clue when would it be unlocked. more than 10 acres of freehold land in  singapore in its books. hk3.5b worth of japan equities. amongst its assets. dividend hk0.07 declared on eps 9c.


sph. fighting digital disruption. selling its m1 stake will unlock lots of cash.


Hotel grand central. if you trace it to its beginnings, you would have seen it growth in the number of hotels over the years. shareholder friendly is definitely a plus, as can be seen as a willingness to increase dividends when earnings permit. compare and contrast this with hotel royal. will get scrip.


banks. ocbc and uob, provide steady may and august/sept dividend. ocbc's 'hidden' 1b assets provides much comfort in holding it, while uob family conservatively run style provides safety. both has discernible dividend rising trend. will get scrip for both.


sgx. singapore as SEA financial hub now and in the future holds a lot of promise to this counter. 4x a year payout is definitely pleasing. current and historical average yield is a tad low though. 5c dividend maintained.


ksh. imo overvalued from the dividend point of view.

sats. 4th 5th terminal coming up should keep this company with lots of people to feed and things to manage.


sph reit. steady properties in orchard road and clementi and low gearing.


frasers reits, starhill and parkway life. business as usual.

St E. One of my long term holdings. steady big ship cruising along. Another blue chip which has gone across the globe to usa. Lot of business deals recently.


9/5/2017
FORGOT to add: I added some lippo malls to divest away from singapore. to me lippo malls is something like frasers. yield is somewhat higher because of geographical risk but to me my risk is reduced because of its purchase.



Overall,

nothing fanciful and nothing new: dividends received will be used to reinvest in the same counters and/or the counters which are about to pay dividends soon.

No further input is necessary. Portfolio creates the income every month and gets reinvested. One reinvestment move means one more continuous stream of income in the future.

Market up or down doesn't matter too much, in fact is not a bad thing after all. Dividends provided new cash flow as compounding and dollar cost average tool.



DON'T FORGET TO ASK YOURSELF THESE QUESTIONS:


1) WILL THIS COMPANY GO BUST IN 10 YEARS?
2) WILL THIS COMPANY STOP DIVIDENDS?
3) WILL THIS COMPANY STOP INCREASING DIVIDENDS OVER TIME?

5 comments:

  1. Hi Paul,

    Since you reinvest dividends and profit taken from divestments plus you are retired, do you keep another source of funds for living expenses...what feed this then?

    Just curious.

    Cheers, JC

    ReplyDelete
  2. personally i keep about 3-5 years of living expenses as my emergency funds.
    i also own some businesses which generate income that i use.


    ReplyDelete
  3. hi Paul, I would like to ask how to mitigate or balance the possible shares capital loss against the dividend gained? For example, recent CDG paid 6.05 cts per share but the share price has dropped quite significantly below $2.77? or shall I try to add more shares for cost averaging ? Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  4. hi Tw L,
    thats a practical question. to answer that question effectively, i would ask myself a question to see whether CDG is undervalued or overvalued at the price of 2.77 based on the historial dividend yield. we can use this value for this counter as it pays out regular and growing dividends for the past decade.
    i worked this out for this counter to come to a 10 year average yield of 3.605%.
    and as such, making the assumption that the next 10 years could very possibly replicate the past decade performance or at least roughly, i worked out a price of 2.86 as the fair value price.
    meaning at 2.77 it is slightly undervalued. price dropping after XD that sort of thing is hard to predict and knowing that at 2.70plus it is still undervalued based on my calculation, i wouldn't worry too much as i know i got it a bit cheap still.
    over long time, if the business fundamentals stil remain strong, the dividends would be expected to be increased, then 2.70 might appear cheaper.
    adding more shares will depend on whats in your portfolio and you will need to see if there is a more compelling buy around first before deciding.

    cheers!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Paul,

      Thanks for your reply and information.
      I’m sorry for late follow-up​, as after mentioned about CDG then with the recent 1-qtr results released on 12/May, share price has dropped significantly from 2.72 to 2.41 this week, I supposed many peoples might not expecting this to happen where the overall the 1st qtr results still above water with the special dividend came from the Aussie subsidary, it's quite a coincidence an example as I had just bought some CDG shares b4 XD and expected price to drop with same dividend amount, nevertheless I think CDG’s fundamental still a good and will see how the price goes for a while b4 adding more shares for long term investment, meanwhile I will hold the tot of considering to include SS in my portfolio after reading a few analysts reports.
      Best Regards and Cheers.

      Delete

hello