Is ksh overvalued at 70c?

out of own interest, i did additional research on ksh. normally, after the initial homework is done, i stay invested for long term.

looks like lots of buying is pushing ksh. its has gone beyond its nav of 67-68c.

however that was the nav of the last quarter, before the chinese new economic zone development was announced.

now that the news is out, land prices around that area has jump multiple fold, so much so that the authorities have to institute measures to curb speculation.

this report from nextinsight provides additional information.

https://www.nextinsight.com.sg/story-archive-mainmenu-60/939-2017/11425-ksh-holdings-our-initial-estimate-of-upside-from-gaobeidian-project

so the contribution from this project might potentially be $0.24-0.47, and the nav might potentially be bumped up to at least $0.90. I think the market thinks its not overvalued  at 70c. So it seems that $0.70 appears to be still undervalued by the buyers who might share the above view that each share is potentially worth much more.

for me, i am vested at a low price, so be it 0.55 or 0.70, its perfectly fine with me, so long as the dividends keep coming.

thanks sanye for your views.


Disclaimer:

I am no analyst nor accountant trained. The above blog is only for my own informative purpose. If you find it useful, please use it at your own discretion.

7/4/2017:

another day of ksh rising up...hit nearly 80c

yes, it is possible there are other reasons that people like ourselves are unaware of.
based on its rnav, it could still be undervalued at 75c.
however, i don't believe that the dividends could be raised to the same proportion as the rise in share price. for the plan to work out and translate to earnings and hence dividends, it will take years to happen.
being a dividend investor, my ksh yield is being suppressed to 4.5% based on last years dividend. even if this years dividend would be raised, most likely at this price, yield would still be below 5%. thus as much as i would like to hold the stock for long long, fundamentals based on dividends tell me otherwise. i divested part of it above 75c.

ksh lian beng incredible single day gain

incredible run up by ksh & lian beng, gaining 16% and 12% in a single day, respectively at the time of writing.

looks good and yes, it does feel good to have 2 counters in my portfolio gaining so much.

however i remain vested.

lian beng
- still remains deeply undervalued, book value is slightly more than $1, thus a gain of 12%, still makes it very undervalued.
- this counter has a pattern of increasing dividend. so its just a matter of price playing catching up with the book value and dividend. whether big boys are playing with it or not, doesnt matter. fundamentals will catch up with itself over time.

ksh
- still undervalued, albeit not as much as lian beng.
-another counter which has tendency to raise dividends blah blah... similar argument to above(just lazy to retype the above)

both with contribute
2, 8,10,12 months with dividends.

focus on cash flow (ie dividends) and portfolio will catch up with it.

cheers!


NB;

I called my broker earlier today and asked him whether he knew the reason for the jump. He told me some BB playing it.

Now, I realised that's not true. It because of ksh and lian beng stake in gaobeidian hebei which is in close proximity to the new economic zone announced by the chinese leader. And recent news reports states that tonnes of speculators are in that chinese state looking for properties to invest.

This is one day we can get vested in the benefits of the new economic zone without leaving our shores.

portfolio update - march 2017

Dividend by month

1) singtel
2) fcot sgx capitacom lian beng starhillg fct sphreit cmt
3) spost  taisin
4) roxy
5) fcot steng sgx  uob sph starhillg fct sphreit cmt cdg hcg
6) tcil ocbc lkh
7) singpost
8) fcot singtel  plife  ocbc  capitacom starhillg sci steng fct singpost sphreit cmt
9)  uob tcil cdg
10) sgx lian beng
11) fcot taisin sgx spost  starhillg fct cmt
12) sph sats ksh


Remarks:


my comments:

Singtel. steady blue chip counter which gives dividend  in jan and august. cannot go too wrong buying this counter and holding it for long. soon it should raise dividend again.

Comfortdelgro. a transport giant. distinct pattern of raising dividend. like singtel, cdg has also gone global. vesting in this would mean having interest in its transport business in different parts of the world. investing in this means indirectly investing in vicom and sbs.

Singpost. in process of ecommerce/elogistic transformation. traditional mail expected to see gradual decline. contribution by singpost centre would come soon. give the counter some time. give the new ceo come time to transform this mail giant. needs to be patient with this counter. anyway, getting paid 4x a year while waiting is not a bad deal.


Taisin. some media talking up this counter, ahead of what its fundamentals can support. be careful when others are greedy. Would expect the upcoming nav to inch to about 40c.


Roxy. will go xd in april. slow and steady counter. deeply undervalued imo. barring unforeseen circumstances, it should be a winner in excess of 5 years. take a walk around marine parade area and one can see that the upcoming mrt is just literally in front of its hotel and roxy square assets. wonderful!


lian beng. deeply undervalued. of course we wont expect it to trade at nav, but its discount to its nav and its low pe appears attractive. lots of hard asset backing and recurring income. its contract works will keep it busy and provide income till 2021. i wouldnt be surprised if it increases its dividend this october.


low keng huat, another deeply undervalued counters. revamp of paya lebar area will give it a boost. slow and steady counter. won perumal site bid, this is in close proximity of farrer park mrt. it probably will hold the ground floor units for recurring income, as in the case of plsq.
Another steady ship. 4c dividend declared. nav up to 90c, cash plus deposits equals 1/4bil, so much of the company is actually cash.


tcil, each passing year represents an increasingly wide pb gap. lots of hard asset backing but no clue when would it be unlocked. more than 10 acres of freehold land in  singapore in its books. hk3.5b worth of japan equities. amongst its assets. dividend hk0.07 declared on eps 9c.


sph. fighting digital disruption. selling its m1 stake will unlock lots of cash.


added hotel grand central, which imo is a discount to its hard assets. if you trace it to its beginnings, you would have seen it growth in the number of hotels over the years. shareholder friendly is definitely a plus, as can be seen as a willingness to increase dividends when earnings permit. compare and contrast this with hotel royal. will get scrip.


banks. ocbc and uob, provide steady may and august/sept dividend. ocbc's 'hidden' 1b assets provides much comfort in holding it, while uob family conservatively run style provides safety. both has discernible dividend rising trend. will get scrip for both.


sgx. singapore as SEA financial hub now and in the future holds a lot of promise to this counter. 4x a year payout is definitely pleasing. current and historical average yield is a tad low though. lets see whether it will increase payout this year or next


ksh. recent nus works will keep it busy. seems like nus prefers it work with it. lots of buildings in nus are aging. possibly of more projects coming.


sats. 4th 5th terminal coming up should keep this company with lots of people to feed and things to manage.


sph reit. one month passed since i last updated, means one month closer to seletar mall injection. counter shows a slight uptrend. ?good news


frasers reits, starhill and parkway life. business as usual.

St E. One of my long term holdings. steady big ship cruising along. Another blue chip which has gone across the globe to usa.

april and may will be busy months, as lots of companies are paying their dividends in these months as well as lots of them organising their agm. will see if i can attend squeeze my time to attend any.




Overall,

nothing fanciful and nothing new: dividends received will be used to reinvest in the same counters and/or the counters which are about to pay dividends soon.

No further input is necessary. Portfolio creates the income every month and gets reinvested. One reinvestment move means one more continuous stream of income in the future.

Market up or down doesn't matter too much, in fact is not a bad thing after all. Dividends provided new cash flow as compounding and dollar cost average tool.



DON'T FORGET TO ASK YOURSELF THESE QUESTIONS:


1) WILL THIS COMPANY GO BUST IN 10 YEARS?
2) WILL THIS COMPANY STOP DIVIDENDS?
3) WILL THIS COMPANY STOP INCREASING DIVIDENDS OVER TIME?

February 2017 update

Dividend by month

1) singtel
2) fcot sgx capitacom lian beng starhillg fct sphreit cmt
3) spost  taisin
4) roxy
5) fcot steng sgx  uob sph starhillg fct sphreit cmt cdg
6) tcil ocbc lkh
7) singpost
8) fcot singtel  plife  ocbc  capitacom starhillg sci steng fct singpost sphreit cmt
9)  uob tcil cdg
10) sgx lian beng ngi
11) fcot taisin sgx spost  starhillg fct cmt
12) sph sats ksh


Remarks:



portfolio auto-building in progress :

my comments:

Bought comfortdelgro. trading at 240plus CD is quite an ok price for me.

Lum Chang exited. Dividend cut from $0.0075 to $0.003 is unacceptable to me for a small cap 100m+ company. already seeing a "maintenance"of 2c per year for some many years is becoming an eye sore. why doesn't the dividend gets increased? is the company not making more money over time? share price going up despite XD is because of own buying. Its something like Starhub 5x4c per year for so many years, being unable to increase dividends in this case is simply because they are not earning more and more over time. Whatever the case, its not a good thing.

Singpost is a bit different sort of creature. It a blue chip which has existed for well over a century. It has made a lot of investments, but hard and soft types. Making one bad one out of so many investments is sometimes inevitable, and as a result of it, suffers a dividend cut. The new CEO has work to do anyway. Should this be a small cap, this would mean exit. However there are clear positives in this case, eg singpost centre revenue, improvement of ecommerce and elogistics aspect. personally, I would hold on. Still bullish on this counter in mid to long term.

*forgot to write this earlier :
Metro exited above 110. upside limited. imo special dividends unlikely. its because of the special dividends expectation that drove price up. normal dividends of 4-6c would still be expected.

No surpises to tai sin, just that media has increased its coverage on this counter and hence its bullish run up. Won't unload my stake. Singpost and taisin add to my march dividends.
As can be seen, even after XD, price did not come down, suggesting market already pricing in future gains.


Similarly, roxy results came in as expected as well as dividends...maybe a little bit disappointed cos its a bit less than last year...but we all know ppty sector not doing so well. personally, am bullish on this counter in the mid-long range of at least 5 years. the thomson east coast line will be up in 2023 and roxy mercury hotel is right smack beside it. and the management focus mainly on non leasehold properties, adding to the attractiveness of this counter. barring unforeseen circumstances, this counter should be a winner in time to come.

lian beng. deeply undervalued. of course we wont expect it to trade at nav, but its discount to its nav and its low pe appears attractive. its contract works will keep it busy and provide income till 2021. i wouldnt be surprised if it increases its dividend this october. I think this counter will be a winner in time to come.

low keng huat, another deeply undervalued counters. revamp of paya lebar area will give it a boost. slow and steady counter

tcil, each passing year represents an increasingly wide pb gap. lots of hard asset backing but no clue when would it be unlocked.

noel gifts. i am rather pessimistic about this counter. balmoral ppty stake has been unlocked earlier. government large gift purchase failed to create catalysts to encourage more business. recent announcement informed that company might even make a loss this calender year. should this be true, dividend cut might happen ie 1.5c to 1c or even skipped! moreoever its only a small cap of around 25m. all this are red flags for me.

sph ; price seems stable ard 345-350 plus minus, with digital transformation taking place

Overall,

nothing fanciful and nothing new: dividends received will be used to reinvest in the same counters as well as the counters which are about to pay dividends soon.

No further input is necessary. Portfolio creates the income every month and gets reinvested. One reinvestment move means one more continuous stream of income in the future.

Market up or down doesn't matter too much, in fact is not a bad thing after all. Dividends provided new cash flow as compounding and dollar cost average tool.


DON'T FORGET TO ASK YOURSELF THESE QUESTIONS:


1) WILL THIS COMPANY GO BUST IN 10 YEARS?
2) WILL THIS COMPANY STOP DIVIDENDS?
3) WILL THIS COMPANY STOP INCREASING DIVIDENDS OVER TIME?

SPH...the pain continues...effects on my portfolio

Digital disruption continues at SPH and the pain continues.

This counter has been on a downtrend, gone below 3.50 today.

It used to be in the core holdings of a lot of people in singapore, especially the older folks. But looks like times are changing fast and people are going digital faster than we had imagined.

IMO this counter will continue going down, until some of its many business ventures bears fruit. A read through its AR shows that it owns many websites and businesses. Downside will be limited its regular dividend and by its significant property portfolio and the stake it has in SPH reit.

Effects on my portfolio

I don't see SPH going bust, because as mentioned above, it is a property aspect to provide a concrete floor to its price.

It constitutes less than 5% of my entire portfolio, so even a fall from $4 to $3.5 will erode less than 1% of my portfolio.

Long term wise, it still provides very stable cash flow to the 5 and 12 months of the year, and it pays like clockwork, complementing the dividend effects of the other counters in my portfolio.

It is merely a member of a financial orchestra, made up of many other members, the full effect of it is much more than the sum of its individual parts.

Cheers!

Happy Chinese Year to All!!!

Losing money yet again trying to time the market? Read this...it might help

Losing money again trying to time the market?

Buying too high, selling even higher?

Or buying at a low price, market drops further...fear gets the better of you and you sell at a loss?? Darn!

Worse, buying and selling stocks which one does not intend to pay fully....

anyway, lets face it, who knows what market will open and close tomorrow? who knows what the market will be in 1 months time? 

well, there is a way to overcome most of this stress or at least some of it.

read my previous entries and you should get the strategy.

but it takes time to do that, yes, a lot of time actually. 

read this young investor's entry and how he progressed taking up such a strategy

http://seng-lee.com/growing-dividend-tree/

disclaimer :


The contents of this Website are provided to you for general information only and should not be used as a basis for making any specific investment, business or commercial decision. These pages should not be construed as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the subscription for, purchase or sale of, any stocks mentioned herein, or, in any jurisdiction to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such a solicitation or invitation in such jurisdiction. They do not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs.

Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of you acting based on this information.

portfolio update december 2016

Dividend by month

1) singtel
2) fcot sgx capitacom lian beng starhillg fct sphreit
3) spost lum chang taisin
4) roxy
5) fcot steng sgx  uob sph starhillg fct sphreit
6) tcil ocbc lkh
7) singpost
8) fcot singtel metro plife  ocbc  capitacom starhillg sci steng fct singpost sphreit
9)  uob tcil
10) sgx lian beng ngi
11) fcot taisin sgx spost  lum chang starhillg fct
12) sph sats ksh


Remarks:



portfolio auto-building in progress :

my comments:

Added sph reit, this counter usually XD and pays 2 weeks before the other reits counters in my portfolio. Useful in the sense that the dividend from sph reit can be used to add to the other reits and then the increased dividends enjoyed used to add more sph reits. defensive nature of reit and low gearing.

As mentioned in previous month comments, lkh is trending upwards as anticipated.

Nothing sold.

Will continue to add more reits, as reits constitute slightly less than 20% of my portfolio.



Overall,

nothing fanciful and nothing new: dividends received will be used to reinvest in the same counters as well as the counters which are about to pay dividends soon.

No further input is necessary. Portfolio creates the income every month and gets reinvested. One reinvestment move means one more continuous stream of income in the future.

Market up or down doesn't matter too much, in fact is not a bad thing after all. Dividends provided new cash flow as compounding and dollar cost average tool.


DON'T FORGET TO ASK YOURSELF THESE QUESTIONS:


1) WILL THIS COMPANY GO BUST IN 10 YEARS?
2) WILL THIS COMPANY STOP DIVIDENDS?
3) WILL THIS COMPANY STOP INCREASING DIVIDENDS OVER TIME?